In a historic development, world temperatures are now more likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming within the next five years, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This update from the WMO emphasizes the urgency of addressing the climate crisis and highlights the inadequacy of current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
A Glimpse into the Future
The WMO’s prediction does not mean that the world will surpass the long-term warming threshold of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, experiencing a year of warming at 1.5°C could provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of surpassing the long-term threshold based on the 30-year global average.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre, who contributed to the WMO’s latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, stated that “it’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5°C.” This significant milestone underscores the need for immediate action to curb climate change.
Contributing Factors
The increased likelihood of nearing 1.5°C can be partially attributed to the development of an El Niño weather pattern expected in the upcoming months. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer waters in the tropical Pacific, which elevate atmospheric temperatures and lead to global temperature rises.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas stated that the upcoming El Niño “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.” Scientists worldwide express concern about the mid-year shift to El Niño, as it is likely to intensify weather extremes, including warmer weather in North America, drought in South America, and an elevated risk of wildfires in the Amazon.
Progressive Increase in Likelihood
The likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has progressively increased over time. Previously, scientists estimated only a 10% chance of reaching 1.5°C between 2017 and 2021. The latest update from the WMO reflects a significant shift, with a 66% probability of temporarily reaching 1.5°C by 2027. These findings underscore the growing urgency to address climate change and accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Prediction-Based Weather Forecast
Unlike the climate projections of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which rely on future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the WMO update offers a prediction-based long-range weather forecast. This approach provides valuable insights into the potential near-term climate trends, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions and take necessary actions.
Record-Breaking Years Ahead
The WMO also determined a 98% probability that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016 when global temperatures rose by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F). This alarming prediction further emphasizes the need for immediate and ambitious climate action.
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Call for Intensified Efforts
Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace UK, emphasized that the WMO’s report must serve as a rallying cry to intensify global efforts to tackle the climate crisis. The findings underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to clean energy sources, and implementing robust climate policies.
The report highlights the need for international cooperation and a collective commitment to mitigate climate change’s impacts. Governments, businesses, and individuals must work together to accelerate the transition to a sustainable and low-carbon future.
The World Meteorological Organization’s warning that global temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5°C within the next five years serves as a wake-up call for immediate and intensified action to address the climate crisis. While it does not indicate a surpassing of the long-term threshold set by the Paris Agreement, experiencing a year of warming at 1.5°C can provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of surpassing that threshold.