Ankara, June 3 – Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the transformative yet divisive leader of Turkey, is set to be sworn in for a historic third term as head of state, extending his two-decade rule for another five years. The inauguration, taking place in parliament, will be followed by a grand ceremony at the capital’s palace, attended by numerous world leaders. However, Erdogan faces immediate challenges as the country grapples with a deteriorating economy and strained foreign policy relations with the West.
In the May 28 runoff election, Erdogan emerged victorious with 52.18 percent of the vote, defeating his secular rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who garnered 47.82 percent. This win comes despite Turkey’s economic crisis and severe criticism following a devastating earthquake in February that claimed over 50,000 lives.
The decelerating economy and rising inflation, currently at 43.70 percent, demand immediate attention from Erdogan. The president’s unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to stimulate growth has contributed to the country’s economic woes. To address these challenges, Erdogan is expected to unveil his new cabinet, with speculation suggesting that former finance minister Mehmet Simsek, known for his international stature and opposition to Erdogan’s unconventional policies, may play a role.
“Erdogan’s government looks like it will pursue an orthodox stabilization program,” noted Alp Erinc Yeldan, professor of economics at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. The potential inclusion of Simsek and his team in the cabinet has been met with enthusiasm by the markets.
Meanwhile, NATO allies are eagerly awaiting Turkey’s decision on Sweden’s application to join the US-led defense alliance. However, Erdogan has been delaying the approval, accusing Stockholm of harboring terrorists from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is designated as a terror group by Ankara and its Western allies. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to attend Erdogan’s inauguration and hold talks with him in an effort to address these tensions.
Turkey’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy, seeking economic and strategic benefits from eastern and autocratic states while maintaining relations with western democracies, is expected to further strain its ties with the West. Geopolitical strategist Matt Gertken from BCA Research predicts that tensions with Western countries will likely increase now that Erdogan has a renewed mandate.
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The defeat of the opposition coalition led by Kilicdaroglu has also left uncertainty surrounding his future as the leader of the CHP party. Erdogan’s alliance, on the other hand, holds a majority in the 600-seat parliament.
As President Erdogan begins his third term, the Turkish people and the international community will be closely watching his government’s actions in addressing the biting economy and managing foreign policy relations amid growing challenges.
