Pakistan, with its strategic location and large population, had the potential to become an upper-middle-income country. However, poor governance and self-serving elites have hindered its economic development, and it now finds itself struggling to keep up with its neighbors.
Despite its significant population and nuclear capabilities, Pakistan has not been able to achieve the level of economic growth that its potential suggests. Its policymakers have relied on hope rather than well-designed policies and have crafted policies that primarily benefit themselves rather than the country as a whole. The middle class and business leaders have been hesitant to look beyond local subsidies and instead develop longer-term strategies to compete on the global economic stage.
Poor governance and self-serving elites as the main hurdles to economic development
One way to achieve this is by investing in its youth. It has a young population, and by providing them with access to education, training, and job opportunities, the country can build a strong and capable workforce. This, in turn, can lead to greater economic growth and development.
Poor governance and self-serving elites have deprived Pakistan of the chance to become an upper-middle-income country. However, with a renewed focus on creating a competitive economy, an equitable polity, and investing in its people, it can turn things around and become a prosperous nation.
Leveraging Pakistan’s youth for economic growth
Pakistan, with its rising and youthful population, has the potential to become an economically robust and politically stronger nation. However, to achieve this, it needs to invest in its human capital. The country’s population pyramid is shaped like a traditional pyramid, with the youngest segments at the bottom and the smallest age demographic at the very top. With a median age of 22.8 years, at least half of the country’s population has been born since 2000. The largest population groups, comprising approximately 35 per cent, are in the zero to 14 years category.
This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for it to leverage its ‘youth dividend’ and create economic growth. However, the country is currently wasting this potential by not investing in its children and youth. Instead, Pakistan’s rulers need to move away from blaming the world for its problems and look inwards to see what Pakistanis can do for themselves. By investing in education and skill development, it can tap into the potential of its youthful population to create economic growth, which would ultimately garner the respect of friends and foes alike. It is time for Pakistan to recognize and utilize the power of its youth to build a brighter future for the country.
The Covid-19 impact
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on education in Pakistan, with 1.6 million Pakistani youth out of school as a result of the pandemic. School enrolment percentages have also changed drastically, with a 15% drop in pre-school enrolment and 6% drop in enrolment for children between the ages of six and 14. In addition to the 23 million out-of-school children in Pakistan, 7.6 million more children dropped out of school due to the pandemic. Schools were only partially open between April 2020 and March 2022, leading to significant learning loss. Students missed out on learning due to school closures and ineffective remote learning methods, and forgot what they had already learned.
The World Bank estimates that students today could lose up to 14.4% of their future earnings due to Covid-19 induced education shocks. Learning poverty, which was already at 60% before the pandemic, has become even more prevalent. The challenge is especially significant in South Asia, where 78% of 10-year-olds are unable to read and understand a simple written text.
Primary education
Primary education in Pakistan is the first stage of free and compulsory education, but it is not necessarily being provided. Formal education for children between the ages of five to nine is identified in five grades, and there are four types of primary schools: public, private, religious, and self-help schools. While the medium of instruction is broadly speaking English and Urdu, there is very little formalized instruction in provincial languages. The National Education Policy of 2009 defines the entry age for pre-primary as three to four years, with a one-year curriculum, one dedicated teacher, and a separate room.
Transforming Pakistan’s future
Pakistan faces enormous challenges in providing education, health, and development opportunities for its young population. Despite the efforts of Pakistanis in the diaspora and international organizations, the country’s political and social elites must take action to address the learning deficit that clouds future prospects.
Shifting to a human development focus
To achieve sustainable growth and become an upper-middle-income country by 2047, Pakistan must shift its growth strategy from consumption and government expenditure to investment in exports. This requires sustained and focused educational and structural reforms, as well as a stable and supportive political climate. While tempting shortcuts exist, such as autocratic rule, such experiments have failed massively in the past and are not viable solutions.
Optimizing resource allocation
Pakistan‘s growth is stunted by its inability to allocate its talent and resources to the most productive sectors. The country must learn from other nations’ experiences to encourage optimal allocation of savings and investments in both the public and private sectors.
Eliminating distortions in the economy
Pakistan’s economy and political system are marked by distortions introduced by policy decisions or not addressed by policies. These distortions are evident in taxes, subsidies, industrial policies, trade restrictions, and gender norms. They discourage innovation and improvements in productivity and encourage firms and households to allocate resources inefficiently and unproductively.
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A call for internal action
Pakistan needs to look internally and make decisions about how to help education, particularly for girls and children, and its youth. If the country invests in physical, emotional, and intellectual development, its youth can become part of a growing service and tech-based economy. It must take a more inclusive approach to give back to the country what the founders gave us.
